Wool colour crucial to price

Using machine learning, Ryan Cosgrove and his team at Fusca are able to build a set of models which predict highly accurate wool prices across short periods of time where economic conditions are consistent.

Ryan Cosgrove is a co-founder of Fusca, the strong wool market data business, and also head of sourcing and materials for active clothing brand Mons Royale. “This project focuses on identifying key factors that affect wool prices at auction and determining where we can direct our efforts to maximise strong wool value,” Cosgrove says.

“Farmers should concentrate on achieving consistent colour and optimal micron through genetic selection, improa grazing management and careful handling practices.’ – Ryan Cosgrove, Chair, Campaign for Wool NZ

The team looked at how controllable variables such as wool colour, length, vegetable matter and micron, plus uncontrollable variables like month and exchange rate, impact the price of wool.

Cosgrove says the insights gained will help to optimise onfarm practice and wool preparation, so farmers can improve their returns. “Colour, length and micron are critical factors affecting wool prices, but colour is by far the most influential,” he says.

Wool Impact’s own analysis showed there are 400,000 tonnes of strong wool actively traded around the world each year, and NZ produces about 25% of it. Chief executive Andy Caughey says most of the global production is low-quality wool, high in vegetable matter. “We’ve learned that NZ produces two-thirds of the world’s high quality strong wool,” he says.

“It’s clean, white, low in vegetable matter, it’s well classed and prepared, so our production is big by comparison to the global production. And, that’s a massive advantage for New Zealand.”

Caughey has been a vocal advocate for taking care with clip preparation to ensure our reputation as a world leader is retained and enhanced.