October is shaping up as the peak westerly month, bringing gales and heavy west coast rain to New Zealand this summer.

Tony Trewinnard, of Blue Skies Weather, says 1982-83 matches this El Niño’s New Zealand impact, a season with southwest changes and Canterbury hailstorms. The wet-west, dry-east pattern won’t arrive on a fixed date.

“It takes time, it edges in, edges out, edges in a bit more,” he says.

The east faces the greatest dryness risk, while the west coast and Southland face the wettest conditions. Strong spring growth means fuel loads for wildfires once it dries out.

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