Value over volume
New Zealand sheepmeat exporters have had a clear reminder over the past year that value matters just as much as volume. Words Nick Beeby.
In 2025/26, export volumes were broadly steady at 371,748 tonnes, yet export value rose 26 percent to $5.2 billion. That lifted the average export value from $11.24/kg in 2024/25 to $14.02/kg in 2025/26. For farmers, processors and exporters, that is an important signal: global customers continue to pay for high-quality New Zealand lamb and mutton when supply is tight and market positioning is strong. That recovery is important, but it also reinforces the need for market balance.
That is particularly important for sheepmeat, which remains a relatively high-priced meat at a time when many consumers around the world are facing cost-of-living pressures. If prices are perceived as too high, that could dampen demand.
China remains our largest sheepmeat market by volume, taking 145,077 tonnes in 2025/26. This was 13 percent lower than the previous year and the lowest annual volume since 2017/18. However, improvement in prices during the year saw the value of exports to China increase by seven percent to $1.2 billion.
The European Union (EU) was our largest market by value, with export revenue increasing by 28 percent on the previous year to $1.5 billion.
The United States and United Kingdom also delivered stronger values, with the value of exports to the United States up 22 percent to $757 million and exports to the United Kingdom up 20 percent to $592 million. This was despite the volume of exports to the United States only growing by three percent from the previous year and the volume of exports to the United Kingdom actually decreasing by seven percent.
“New Zealand is exporting the same amount of product but earning considerably more for it.” – Nick Beeby, CEO, Meat Industry Association
In practical terms, New Zealand is exporting the same amount of product but earning considerably more for it. That is a positive story, particularly in a sector that supports regional jobs, processing capacity and farmgate returns. However, we should not be complacent, as global sheepmeat markets can change quickly. The United States has launched a global safeguard investigation into lamb imports.
New Zealand is also one of 60 economies included in a US investigation into forced labour in supply chains. In late July, the US administration determined that all 60 economies were found to have failed in imposing and/or effectively enforcing a prohibition on the imports of goods from forced labour, and imposed an additional 12.5 percent tariff on most imports from New Zealand, including sheepmeat.
Meanwhile, China’s demand remains weak and currency movements, geo-political tension and shipping volatility in key supply routes impact returns.
But the fundamentals are encouraging. Australian supply pressure is easing after several years of high production, with Meat and Livestock Australia forecasting lower lamb and mutton production in 2026. That shift is already being reflected in lower Australian export volumes in 2025/26.
Europe is another important part of the picture. Demand remains firm, supported in part by declining domestic sheepmeat production which dropped by 14 percent between 2020 and 2025.
New Zealand is well placed to meet that shortfall through our long-standing WTO quota access and the additional access provided through the New Zealand-European Union Free Trade Agreement. Maintaining and growing that access is critical because high-value markets reward consistency, assurance and quality.
The India-New Zealand Free Trade Agreement is also worth watching. India is currently a small sheepmeat market, but the removal of tariffs that are now 33 percent creates a long-term opening. It will take patience, investment and market development, but opportunities of that kind are exactly why trade access remains so important.
The message for the sheep sector is simple: our future will not be built on volume alone. It will be built on extracting more value from every kilogram, protecting our reputation and ensuring processors and exporters can reach the customers who most value what New Zealand produces.
At a time when sheep farmers are weighing difficult land-use, cost and confidence decisions, the export story provides reason for optimism. Demand is there. The value is there. Our job as an industry is to keep earning it.
