Shortage of supply drives lamb prices
The fundamentals are clear. The US does not produce enough lamb on its own to satisfy its consumers. That means for New Zealand sheep farmers, the United States has become more than just an export destination but one of the key pillars supporting global lamb prices. Words Kate Acland.
Imported lamb now accounts for more than 70 percent of US lamb consumption, with Australia and New Zealand supplying virtually all imported lamb.
This structural supply deficit is not a short-term phenomenon. In the late 1880’s, sheep numbers in the US were estimated to be around 51 million, dropping to around five million today. This number has been relatively static at 5-6 million for the last 20 years.
The US sheep flock continues to face moderate declines and domestic production remains constrained – although a move to steadily increasing carcass weights has softened some of this impact. The average liveweight for lambs at slaughter in the US last season was 57kg – a very different position to New Zealand.
Shortages are translating into strong demand and strong prices for both domestic producers and New Zealand exporters alike.
Beef + Lamb New Zealand reports show that red meat prices are sitting at record levels, supported by tight global supply and robust demand from the US, Europe and the UK.
Recent export data also shows sheepmeat sold into the United States achieving some of the highest average values of any market, reaching more than NZ$23 per kilogram in 2026.
This is welcome news after several difficult seasons for New Zealand farmers. Rising costs, declining sheep numbers and pressure on profitability have tested confidence across the sector. Yet the current market demonstrates the enduring value of New Zealand’s grass-fed production systems and reputation for consistency.
There are, however, clouds on the horizon. Trade policy remains the biggest uncertainty. The US lamb safeguard and forced labour investigations have created nervousness throughout the sheepmeat industry.
While we in New Zealand have long argued that our product complements rather than competes directly with domestic US production, political realities do not always follow economic logic.
Recently, I was in the US and met with the Executive Director of the American Sheep Industry Association, Mike Michener. We discussed the shared challenges and opportunities to work together to promote consumption of more sheepmeat.
Our message is clear – this market is big enough to grow for all of us. The average American consumes 0.6kg of lamb and mutton per person per year, whereas beef sits around 26kg.
The challenge for New Zealand is to avoid becoming complacent. Strong prices today are the result of constrained global supply, not necessarily expanding demand. Continued investment in market access, consumer preference and trade relationships will be essential if we are to maintain our position.
