Tony Trewinnard from Blue Skies Weather says the North Island will stay relatively settled over the next fortnight while the South Island wears a cold southwesterly and mountain snow. He says the North Island shrugs off these systems more easily.

“The North Island tends to be a little bit more muted in its response to these weather patterns than the South Island does,” he says.

A cold week will follow, with low-level snow possible in the east of the South Island and even the North Island, though not the majority view across forecast models.

“Cold is definitely the signature for next week, whether it’s cold and frosty or cold and snowy is kind of a little bit up in the air.”

Milder westerlies return in August as El Niño builds.

“Don’t get too hung up on how big an El Nino event it is. Concentrate on the fact that this is an El Nino season that’s coming.”

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.