Partner at MinterEllisonRuddWatts law, Sarah Salmond, says a newly launched US safeguard case into sheep meat imports could raise tariffs on New Zealand lamb beyond the 12.5% baseline now applied to most exports.

“The outcomes of these cases could be more serious for New Zealand than this baseline 10 to 15% tariff we’ve talked about because the tariffs imposed further to those investigations could be materially higher,” she says.

She says the case turns on US import levels, not New Zealand’s farming practices.

“I believe you could see a tariff at the level of 50% or so.”

She says those tariffs are here to stay, with no final court ruling likely for 10 to 12 months.

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