This episode featured as part of the Weather segment in partnership with HawkEye Pro from Ravensdown. 

Tony Trewinnard of Blue Skies Weather says Tropical Pacific temperatures across the equator are averaging 2.5 to 3.5 degrees above normal, unprecedented and record-setting, with subsurface temperatures peaking at about 10 to 12 degrees above normal.

He says the character of this El Niño is southwest changes pushing through the South Island, with fewer of them in October.

“Past El Niño seasons in Canterbury have had relatively wet changeable Septembers and sometimes Octobers,” he says.

“Those changes could well bring thunderstorms, hail showers.”

He says 1982-83 was similar, with eight thunderstorm southwest changes in Canterbury in December and the Halswell tornado destroying homes in January.

Your weather update — brought to you by HawkEye Pro from Ravensdown. Next‑gen tech, backed by forty years of soil science, delivering insights every ten metres to lift farm efficiency and sustainability — and drive profitability. HawkEye Pro. The proof is in the paddock.

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.