The next six weeks fall into three chapters. The first is the week ahead: the westerlies keep going, but they are weaker than they looked a week ago and aimed mostly at the far south, with rain for Fiordland and Southland, dry weather for the north and east, and a brief southwest change around Saturday (19th) and Sunday (20th). Firm on that. Then, from about Monday (21st), high pressure builds over the whole country and holds for close to three weeks, strongest either side of the turn of the month. That looks likely, with the direction firmer than the dates. From around 10 October the high eases north and the westerlies return to the south, direction only at this range. Against a normal late September, usually the windiest, most changeable stretch of the year, this is unusually quiet. The part that matters is that long, dry middle.

In practical terms, the week ahead is the last of the wet, windy weather for a while, and most of it lands on the far south. After that the story is how dry it gets. Settled days, lengthening daylight and warming soils should lift pasture growth wherever there is moisture in the ground, but the north and east head into this spell already on the dry side, and three quiet weeks will draw soils down quickly there. On clear, still nights inland a few frosts are possible, a bit softer than winter’s. Snow risk beyond the high country fades, which makes for a kinder run through lambing and calving than early September gave.

The full week-by-week, region-by-region outlook for all 13 regions is in the Blue Skies Weather paid edition at bswx.substack.com.

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.

Watch Andy’s full interview with Tony earlier this week below.