Brought to you by Blue Skies Weather.

High pressure is in charge. This weekend and next week bring light winds, dry weather almost everywhere and unusually warm days for early October, warmest in the south, though the West Coast stays grey. Around 11–13 October a front looks likely to bring rain to the West Coast and Fiordland — the first real break, perhaps brief. How long the dry lasts after that is far less certain: recent forecast runs have swung between mid- and late October for the westerlies’ return, and the latest keeps the high close for most of the month. It will probably end sooner in the south and west. Firm on the warm, dry week ahead, likely on the West Coast rain, direction only on the end. Set against a normal October, usually spring’s windiest and most changeable month, this looks much drier and warmer. The length of the dry spell is what counts.

For most farms this is a drying story, arriving just as spring growth gets going. Warm, sunny days should push growth along well while soil moisture lasts, but the same warmth and sunshine dry soils quickly, and the north and east may see little rain to top them up for several weeks. Irrigation demand is likely to start early on light, free-draining country. Calm, clear nights under the high can still turn chilly in sheltered inland spots. In the high country the warmth should bring an early start to snowmelt on the ranges. Rain returns first in the west and south; elsewhere the open question is how long the dry runs.

The full six-week outlook, with detail for all 13 regions, is available to paid subscribers on Substack bswx.substack.com

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.