New Zealand’s wine industry is emerging from the 2026 vintage in better shape after a tough run of years, though Findex viticulture lead and business advisory partner Alistair King says the sector remains caught in a global reset between supply and consumption.
“Some regions have had some absolute stunners, such as the Wairarapa and Hawke’s Bay, and certainly down here in Central Otago,” he says.
Marlborough also had a good year, and the extra supply still sitting from previous vintages should work its way through the industry over the next 12 months. He says whether that counts as a good season depends on who is asked.
“You talk to the accountants, and we’re all keen on volume because that helps your cost of goods, and it’s going to generate more revenue.
“Talk to the winemakers and the viticulturalists, though, and they’re really focused on quality.”
He says global wine consumption has been falling since 1973, but the decline has become more pronounced since 2019, with the industry consistently carrying surplus supply that the market does not need.
“The cost of actually producing a bottle of wine has gone up about 30%, but the average price has not gone up 30%, so growers’ margins have been squeezed quite a lot.”
He says New Zealand wineries are using the reset to renew vineyards, removing underperforming blocks, replacing Marlborough vines planted almost 50 years ago, and shifting to new clones or varieties for climate change. Planting to production takes three to four years, so the industry’s direction will only become clear once that cycle plays out.
The imbalance is concentrated in bulk wine rather than premium bottles. High-end wines have kept growing as drinkers trade up.
“The bulk of the wine that comes out of Europe, which is a massive chunk of the industry, is less than five euros per bottle.”
The scale of that reset differs sharply from country to country.
“In France, there are about 500,000 hectares of vineyards, and they are in the process of reducing that by 20%, pulling 100,000 hectares out of the ground.
“In comparison, New Zealand is closer to 38,000 hectares in total.”
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