El Niño has been officially declared and is expected to intensify into one of the strongest events on record, raising the stakes for farmers heading into spring and summer.

Tony Trewinnard from Blue Skies Weather says the pattern has been building for months, and farmers who prepare now can limit the damage.

“Hope is not a strategy,” he says.

“You need a strategy to get through this because it will impact you.

“In the past, El Niño events have had a big impact on New Zealand agriculture and on New Zealand’s economy.

“If we can plan now in the safety of the winter before the El Niño really kicks in, then maybe we can ameliorate some of those impacts, not just on an individual’s farm, but on farming and on the New Zealand economy collectively.”

He says the numbers are illustrative rather than modelled forecasts.

“I’ll just pick some numbers out of the air, but instead of being, say, an $800 million hit to the economy, maybe we can turn it into a $400 million hit to the economy by being prepared.”

Forecasters compare this year’s signals against past El Niño events, and the pattern most closely resembles 1997-98 and 1982-83, both of which brought more southwesterly weather to the East Coast.

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