Fundamentals pointing in the right direction

After a challenging few years, especially in our largest market China, it’s great to see a recovery in global sheepmeat trade.

2024 saw overall sheepmeat exports down 3% by both volume and value, with 373,682t exported, worth $3.61 billion.

The most notable decline was in China. A combination of tough economic conditions and increased domestic production, off the back of past high prices, saw New Zealand’s exports to China fall 22% in volume and 32% in value, to 169,051t and $956 million respectively.

While China was under pressure, other markets stepped up. The UK, for example, recorded its highest volume of New Zealand sheepmeat imports since 2018 and the highest value since 2020, up 41% by volume and 44% by value from 2023.

“The EU has emerged as the standout growth market with export volumes increasing 18% to 36,880t, and values up a staggering 47% to $674 million.” – Sirma Karapeeva, Chief Executive,
Meat Industry Association (MIA)

Similarly, exports to the EU rose 11% by volume and 8% in value for the year. These gains were welcome validation of the work being done by our exporters to diversify and grow our market access.

Now, as we progress through 2025, the news is even more positive.

In the first five months of the year, total sheepmeat export volumes are up 2% compared to the same period in 2024, but more importantly, the value of those exports has jumped by 31% to $2.3 billion. This is a significant lift and one that reflects both improving prices and robust international demand.

China is showing signs of recovery. Export volumes are up 2% and values have surged 32% to $615 million. The average value per kilogram has climbed from $5.66 last year to $6.84 so far this year, a solid rebound that bodes well for the remainder of 2025.

That’s a clear signal of tight supply conditions in the EU and increasing consumer demand for high-quality, sustainably produced sheepmeat, something New Zealand is uniquely positioned to provide.

Interestingly, even where export volumes have dipped, such as to the UK (down 7%) and the US (down 15%), value has still climbed, up 37% and 2% respectively. This tells us that demand is holding firm even in the face of tighter supply, and that New Zealand lamb and mutton remain premium products on the global stage.

The red meat sector is deeply disappointed by the US Administration’s decision to increase tariffs on New Zealand exports.

Despite this development, the fundamentals are pointing in the right direction. Demand is solid, prices are improving, and New Zealand exporters are maintaining their reputation for quality and consistency.

As we head into lambing season, there is genuine reason for optimism. Yes, the challenges are real, but so are the opportunities.