Modelling shows El Niño and La Niña events intensifying in both frequency and strength as the climate warms.

Dr Andrew Tait, General Manager of Weather and Climate Hazards at Earth Sciences New Zealand, says a global climate model run to the end of the century shows the cycles intensifying and swinging between extremes.

“We’re basically just going bang, one El Niño down to the next La Niña, back up, and they’re more intense,” he says.

The current El Niño’s sea surface temperature anomaly exceeds 1982-83 and 1997-98, he says.

“That background change is really what we need to adapt to.”

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