The six weeks break into three chapters. The first, through to about the middle of next week, is the wild one: a powerful westerly is still pouring rain onto the West Coast and the southern lakes, with snow on the tops, while east of the ranges it stays warm, dry and windy. A colder southwest change crosses around Tuesday or Wednesday, and the rest of next week is the coldest stretch of the period, with sharp inland frosts in the clear nights behind it. From around the middle of the month high pressure is more often in charge for two to three weeks, though a spring westerly still works away underneath it — likely on the settled spell, softer on how much westerly leaks through. Into early October the westerlies pick up again, the direction firmer than the dates. Against a normal September, usually the windiest month of spring, this is a quieter one, with the real bluster packed into the first fortnight.

For most farms it is a hard opening and a kinder middle. The west and south have a very wet, stormy week to get through first, then a cold snap that will bite at lambing and slow growth for a few days. After that, mild days and cool nights under high pressure suit early spring growth, but the north and east run drier than normal for most of the period, so soil moisture runs down rather than topping up. The West Coast still gets a bit of rain even in the quieter weeks — the tap turns down, not off. Early October looks changeable again, with western rain returning and windy days east of the ranges.

Full six-week outlooks for 13 regions are issued every Tuesday. Read more at https://www.blueskies.co.nz/join — CountryWide readers get 25% off at https://bswx.substack.com/25925040

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.