Blueskies weather forecaster Tony Trewinnard says El Niño is developing about a month ahead of earlier forecasts, with ocean-atmosphere coupling already underway and westerly patterns expected to establish across New Zealand by August.

Trewinnard says the strongest structural analog is the 1997/98 season, when a post-event report put the cost to New Zealand agriculture at about $650 million.

“That was 30 years ago, so those were the dollars of 30 years ago,” he says.

“What are those dollars now? Are we looking at double those numbers? Triple those numbers? That’s why this is something that needs to be planned for.”

Many farmers are taking a wait-and-see approach, he says.

“I don’t think that that is the optimal approach to protect the integrity of your business as a farm.

“We’ve been through enough of them now over the years, over the decades to really know how they evolve and what the outcomes are… at a fundamental level, they’re all pretty much the same.”

“What became apparent is that the development process of this El Niño is, I won’t say accelerating, but it is moving very rapidly, more rapidly than the majority of them move.

“I didn’t really expect to see that until later in July, early August, so we’re probably a good month ahead of where I had previously anticipated we’d be.”

He says winter 2026 is expected to be mild, with warmer-than-normal oceans holding up temperatures.

“A mild winter doesn’t mean that you won’t get cold outbreaks.”

Seasonal outlooks are available via subscription at blueskies.co.nz/join.

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