The surprise rate hold pushes the next rise out a meeting
He says markets had priced a 95% chance of a rise and see about 4% by 2027.
|October 29, 2026Listen to the full interview:
The Reserve Bank’s surprise hold moves the next official cash rate rise out by a meeting.
Infometrics principal economist Brad Olsen says the decision stunned economists because market pricing for a rise was so strong.
“Something has clearly spooked them in the last six weeks where they’re now more concerned than they were before about where the global environment is,” he says.
Markets had priced a 95% chance of a rise, and inflation excluding fuel is still 3%. Olsen says the cash rate is 2.75% and the real rate is negative, which tells people to spend rather than save.
Markets price about 4% by the end of 2027, but Olsen says 3.5% might be enough.
Watch the full interview:
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