Markets price a full rate hike as core inflation heads north
He says the economic recovery is led by the regions, not by selling more expensive houses to each other.
|October 28, 2026Listen to the full interview:
Markets are fully priced for an official cash rate hike, with core inflation moving up.
Bagrie Economics lead economist Cameron Bagrie says headline inflation fell in the September quarter but the Reserve Bank’s core measures are heading north.
“The market’s basically 100% priced for a rate hike and about 90% priced for two rate hikes by the end of the year,” he says.
He says fuel prices have rocketed back up in the past few weeks, and headline inflation is likely to go from 3.7% to probably 4.5%.
“What we’re starting to see is second round effects from your fuel prices.”
He says an official cash rate of 4% is still relatively low over 20 years, and productivity growth has averaged 0.2% over the past 10.
Watch the full interview:
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