After the warm spell, rain heads north and the east stays dry
Tony Trewinnard of Blue Skies Weather says rain heads north next week, while the east stays dry.
|November 5, 2026Brought to you by Blue Skies Weather.
A change moves up the country this weekend, easing an unusually warm week, and the flow turns north-easterly. A low lingering in the Tasman Sea and a high building well to the south-east bring rain to the north and Bay of Plenty from into next week, heavy at times, while Fiordland and Southland stay mostly dry; that turn looks very likely. From mid-November the pattern settles closer to normal, changeable at first, then with drier, settled spells in the north and east late in the month.
Westerlies return around the start of December, wetter for the West Coast and Fiordland, though the direction is firmer than the dates. A normal November is windy and changeable, with the westerlies near their spring peak; this one looks warmer and less westerly. The bite is in the east, where the useful rain largely misses after a very warm, dry week this week.
Growth stays strong in the north and west, where moisture is good, and next week’s rain gives the north another boost, though humid weather will raise disease pressure in orchards. East of the ranges, soils dried quickly in this week’s warm nor’westers, and the showers reaching the east coast next week are unlikely to make up much ground before drier spells return late in the month.
Temperatures ease to near or slightly above normal. Frost is not expected in the next fortnight; late in November a cold change could bring a frosty morning to inland southern areas, but that is a possibility rather than a forecast.
Full six-week outlooks for 13 regions are issued every Tuesday. Read more at https://www.blueskies.co.
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