A cold snap this weekend, then a warm, humid turn next week

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The next six weeks run in three parts. This week’s cold south-westerly changes clear to a crisp, settled weekend, with frost possible on Saturday and Sunday mornings inland in the south and parts of the central North Island. From about Monday 2 November a high sets up east of the country and warm, humid northerlies take over, with rain for the north and west and heavy falls possible in Bay of Plenty and Coromandel, while east of the South Island ranges stays mostly dry and warm. That turn looks likely. From around 9 November the westerlies return at about normal strength, showery in the west and a bit cooler in the south; the direction is firmer than the dates. Set against a normal early November, this is a colder start, then a warmer, more humid spell than usual. The bite is next week’s warmth and humidity in the north.

For farmers, the weekend frost is the near-term watch on fresh spring growth and early crops, especially in low-lying paddocks. Next week’s warm, humid spell is the best growing week of the outlook in the north and west, but it brings high disease pressure for kiwifruit, avocado and pipfruit, and soft ground where the rain is heaviest. East of the ranges, warm north-westerly days keep soils drying, and Hawke’s Bay and Gisborne look like staying short of rain into mid-November. From mid-month the pattern settles into a fairly ordinary spring westerly: regular rain on the West Coast and in Fiordland, little change in the east, and a slightly cooler feel in the south.

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