Fieldays visitors heading to Mystery Creek next week can leave the raincoat at home but should pack warm layers, Blue Skies weather forecaster Tony Trewinnard says.

“You’ll need warm socks, and the beanie first thing in the morning, but [there will be] nice days, probably with sunshine and relatively pleasant afternoon temperatures – you shouldn’t need the umbrella,” he says.

The settled Fieldays forecast follows an unusually warm start to winter. 

“The warmth and the moisture in this northerly air flow was pretty much at the top end of the scale — not what you would expect to see at this time of year.

“It would not be out of place in January, February, or March.”

The warmth arrives after a record dry May on the east coast, with parts of Canterbury receiving just 4-5mm for the month and the lower North Island about 11mm. Ski fields relying on natural snow have fared poorly, Trewinnard says, and June is unlikely to improve on that.

A shift to southwesterly airflow is expected at the weekend, bringing cooler conditions through next week. The six-week outlook trends drier and warmer beyond that, with high pressure dominant, similar to the pattern through much of May. A possible exception comes at the end of June. 

“Somewhere around the last few days of June, first few days of July, we may see another of these active periods like we’re in at the moment. 

“[There is] some suggestion that that one will be the cold southerly one rather than the warm northerly one.”

The bigger concern is what follows. El Niño is now confirmed to be developing, and Trewinnard says anyone heading into spring already short of moisture is at serious risk. 

“Once that starts happening in the springtime, early summertime, the East Coast is going to go dry.

“If you go into that dry, you’re on the back foot before you even start.”

Blue Skies has produced an El Niño preparedness report available at blueskies.co.nz/elnino, or free with a six-week or seasonal subscription.

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.