The GDT price index fell 2.8% in its latest event, its second consecutive decline, with whole milk powder down 3.1%, skim milk powder down 3.6%, and butter down 2.4%.

Cristina Alvarado, head of Dairy Insights for NZX, says every product fell except lactose.

“Even though we saw declines, it could have been worse – the fact that it was just at that level shows there was definitely demand present,” she says.

Southeast Asia and Oceania were the top buyers for most products, with North Asia leading butter purchases.

“The Middle East actually bought more than the last event, because in the last event they only bought 10%, this event they bought 14%.

“Central and South America also bought more; they went from buying 6% last event at 9% this event.”

NZX sent its forecast to subscribers ahead of the event and had it bang on.

“We were expecting those numbers, and the reason behind that is because, first, there’s been solid milk production in all the key producing countries.

“Even though we are at the bottom of our production curve, there’s still product available, and the US has also been increasing its milk production,” she says.

Europe, Argentina and Uruguay have also maintained production, with output coming through in skim milk powder. The US increase is feeding through as non-fat dried milk.

“There is product available, plus there’s product in shipments right now being sent to countries.

“That meant that that was going to put pressure on the buying of those products.”

El Niño conditions are not yet affecting these production figures.

“The expectation is that it might be present in probably a few months, around October, November and December.”

If the weather affects key producing countries, pricing could move upward.

Alvarado says the NZX forecast for 2026/27 sits just below $10, though the figure can change.

“We’ve always seen how the year changes.

“We did see the end of the 2025 calendar year that prices started to go down, but as 2026 started, prices started to go up again, and that balanced everything out.

“I think we’re still at a really good start of the season with good production.”

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