An El Niño forecast to be among the most significant in 50 years is developing in the Pacific, and farmers should be preparing now, says Tony Trewinnard of Blue Skies Weather.

“It’s going to be not only the biggest weather story of the next six months, it’s probably going to be the biggest farming story of the next six months.”

Sea surface temperatures along the equatorial Pacific are currently between 0.5 and 0.8 of a degree above the long-term average, Trewinnard says. Forecasting suggests that anomaly will reach two to three degrees above normal by late in the year, putting the event in the same historical category as the droughts and floods of 1972-73 and 1996-97.

“Historically, we’re right up there towards the greatest increase or the most rapid movement towards El Niño that we’ve seen in 50 years or so.”

Much of New Zealand has been under a persistent high-pressure system for two to three weeks, which is not typical for autumn, he says. A breakdown is expected around King’s Birthday weekend, followed by more easterly airflow in early June. Some areas of the central North Island, North Canterbury, and mid-Canterbury are relatively dry, with irrigation continuing later into the season than usual in some places.

A 34-page El Niño report covering what farmers and growers should be doing now is available to Blue Skies Weather subscribers, Trewinnard says.

“If you can prepare for this El Niño now, it’s going to have less of a negative impact on you, and you might even be able to actually turn it to your advantage.”

CountryWide CONNECT with Andy Thompson & Sarah Perriam-Lampp is our daily rural show livestreamed from 11am-1pm. Visit country-wide.co.nz on how to watch/listen or download the CountryWide CONNECT mobile app, available on Apple iOS and Android.